Abstract. An approach to the problem of prediction of the extent of functional obsolescence of information system using a fuzzy regression model of degradation of the system functionality. Special feature of the approach is introduction of fuzzy time intervals and fuzzy expert assessments of the degree of functional (moral) obsolescence. Forecasting is carried out based on processing the results of fuzzy expert evaluation of the degree of functional obsolescence of the information system. Expressions allowing to determine the optimal values of the parameters of the fuzzy linear regression model, as well as predict the extent of functional obsolescence and functional residual resource of the information system, are presented. The application of the described results makes it possible to obtain predictive estimates of indicators of moral durability of existing information systems necessary for planning the processes of their design, operation, and modernization.

Keywords: prediction, information system, fuzzy expert estimate, functional obsolescence

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