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8
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vol 63 / August, 2020
Article

DOI 10.17586/0021-3454-2019-62-7-593-601

UDC 681.511.4

ESTIMATION METHODS FOR QUALITY INDICATORS OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS FUNCTIONING

V. N. Arseniev
A. F. Mozhaysky Military Spaсe Academy, Department of Onboard Information and Measuring Complexes; Professor


E. N. Belikhin
А. F. Mozhaysky Military Space Academy, Department of On-board Information and Measuring Complexes;


A. A. Yadrenkin
A. F. Mozhaisky Military Space Academy, Department of On-board Information and Measuring Complexes; Associate Professor


Abstract. A comparative analysis of method of maximum posterior probability and experimental information priority method as applied to estimation of quality indicators of complex systems functioning, is carried out. One of the basic advantages of experimental information priority method, namely the account for proximity of aprioristic and experimental data, is noted to exclude the necessity of checking uniformity of the entire available information. It is also shown that this method may be used in the absence of aprioristic distribution. With a known aprioristic distribution of the estimated parameter, the posterior estimates obtained by methods of a maximum of a posterior probability and a priority of the experimental information, coincide. Formulas for determining the gain in the number of tests and the accuracy of evaluation obtained by taking into account a priori information, are presented.
Keywords: complex system, quality indicators of functioning, method of maximum posterior probability, experimental information priority method, comparative analysis, gain in estimation

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