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12
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vol 63 / December, 2020
Article

DOI 10.17586/0021-3454-2020-63-3-199-205

UDC 681.511.4

Method for Refining a Priori Probabilities of a Complex System States from Experimental Data

V. N. Arseniev
A. F. Mozhaysky Military Spaсe Academy, Department of Onboard Information and Measuring Complexes; Professor


A. B. Petukhov
A. F. Mozhaysky Military Space Academy, Department of Airborne Information and Measurement Complexes; Lecturer


A. A. Yadrenkin
A. F. Mozhaisky Military Space Academy, Department of On-board Information and Measuring Complexes; Associate Professor


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Abstract. For a complex system, the problem of refining a priori probabilities of hypotheses about the system state using the data obtained during its experimental adjustment and operation is considered. The proposed method for solving this problem is based on weighted accounting of the results of a priori and experimental studies of the system. The results of comparing a posteriori estimates with estimates obtained by Bayes formulas are presented. It is shown that, in contrast to the Bayesian solution, the use of the proposed method provides for accounting the proximity of the results of a priori studies of the system to the results of experiments, and does not allow a priori information to dominate the experimental data.
Keywords: complex system, system state, a priory probability, experimental data, method of priority of experimental information, a posteriori probability, Bayesian estimates, comparative analysis

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